Risk, hedge, and credit briefs for IPPs — before every PJM and ERCOT open.
Steepmark watches nodal price volatility, bilateral PPA credit, fuel-cost hedge ratios, and weather-driven load swings — then writes a one-page pre-session memo that lands with the risk committee thirty minutes before the open. Where PCI, Molecule, OATI, and AEGIS run trade-to-settlement, Steepmark sits ahead of them as a lightweight intelligence layer.
- PJM · ERCOT
- Markets covered
- −30 min
- Lead time
- One page
- Brief format
- Fixed
- Pilot fee
Brief: Roll West Hub 2026 strip, cap gas skew.
- Pre-session brief06:00 ET · WED
- Capacity auction pressureABOVE PRICE CAP
- AECO heat-rate skewWIDENING
- PPA counterpartyWithin envelope
- Decision ETA06:25 ET
Why Steepmark
The intelligence layer your ETRM doesn’t run.
PCI, Molecule, OATI, and AEGIS are powerful trade-to-settlement systems — and they all stop at the same place: after the position lands, before the committee decides. That gap is what Steepmark fills.
- Position lifecycle, contract management, settlement
- Position-limit breach surfaced post-fill, manual scan
- Counterparty credit reviewed once per cycle
- Weather and load modeled offline, refreshed weekly
- Result: the committee reads what the ETRM reports.
- Pre-session brief lands T-30, breach list at the top
- Two-way counterparty credit marked against gas-fired heat-rate calls
- NAM + ERCOT heat-index probability fed into named swing scenarios
- Talking points ranked, not dumped — committee-ready prose
- Result: the committee decides before the open.
Markets · live monitoring
Translating today’s numbers into tomorrow’s named hedge actions.
Thin. Capacity auction clearing above price cap for two consecutive deliveries.
- 01Buy 2026/2027 capacity strips up to $329/MW-day ceiling
- 02Roll gas-fired heat-rate calls against AECO basis
- 03Cap bilateral PPA exposure at 1.4× counterparty credit envelope
More queued than the entire current installed capacity. Curtailment regime rolls on June 1 — re-rate revenue upside.
- 01Right-size heat-rate hedge ratio across gas/heat-rate collar
- 02Re-mark all curtailment-rights so revenue model flips with the new regime
- 03Pre-fund intraday RT credit lines with margin desk ahead of open
Pre-session desk
One page. Five sections. No clicking through screens.
Every morning brief is the same shape so the committee knows where to look. The numbers and the hedges change with the market; the order never does.
- 01
Pre-session breach flags
Every position-limit line surfaced against current exposure, sent to the risk committee mailbox 30 minutes before the open. No clicking through screens.
- 02
Two-way counterparty credit
Marks bilateral PPA credit exposure AND the offsetting risk on instruments like gas-fired heat-rate call options. One net letter to your committee, not two.
- 03
Weather-plus-load swing scenarios
Brings NAM load forecast, ERCOT heat-index probability, and historical nodal price response into a single short, named scenario stack.
- 04
Rank-ordered committee talking points
Five-item bullet stack at the top of every brief: breach, hedge, credit, scenario, talking point. Decision-ready, not data-dump.
- PJM West Hub 2026 stripLONG+0.4σWithin limit · review tail
- AECO gas index · Q3-Q4SHORT+1.8σBreach: +18% of position limit
- ERCOT North hub RTLONG+0.9σWithin limit · re-mark after Jun 1
- Heat-rate call · 14.5 MMBtu/MWhLONG 1.4k−0.3σSkew narrowing · keep
- Bilateral PPA · Riverbend GenCREDIT$24.5MCounterparty at 71% of envelope
85th percentile heat dome · MW shift +6.4%
+$0.18 strip · heat-rate call skew widening
ERCOT North peak ≥108°F probability 0.62
FAQ
Common questions from Houston-region IPP risk desks.
Anything not covered here — write to the team and a risk analyst replies within a working day.
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